Cancel the contracts, Minister Thibeault

Energy Minister Glenn Thibeault: more power we don't need soon to come to the grid ... and your hydro bill
Energy Minister Glenn Thibeault: more power we don’t need soon to come to the grid … and your hydro bill

September 30, 2016

Energy Minister Glenn Thibeault was busy this past week dancing around issues plaguing his portfolio. The issues are: rising electricity bills, energy poverty and polls showing falling voter approval of the Ontario Liberal Party. In an effort to stem the bad news Minister Thibeault announced the suspension of his predecessor’s directive to IESO ordering up another 600 megawatts (MW) of wind and 300 MW of solar.

Minister Thibeault issued a news release, delivered a speech to the Ontario Electricity Association, and held a press conference. He looked somewhat embarrassed to be claiming that, because the Large Renewable Procurement or LRP II was not proceeding, the average electricity ratepayer will not have to pay an additional $2.45 per month in the future. About 4 million of those average ratepayers, however, will have to pay from $6-$8.00 more per month if they use gas as a source of warmth (gas furnace) or hot water to cover the costs of the cap and trade tax starting January 1, 2017. Those same ratepayers will also see the benefits of the removal of the 8% provincial sales tax and a drop of $6-8.00 in their monthly electricity bill meaning they shouldn’t see an increase in their energy costs. Or will they?

Let’s examine the ministerial pronouncements about “suspending” LRP II to see if the actions will really stop rate increases.

First, put the suspension of 600 MW of wind and 300 MW of solar in context. A look at the 2016 Ontario Power Generation (OPG) 2nd Quarter report helps. If wind operated at 30% of capacity and solar at 15% they could have produced 986,000 MWh of intermittent electricity or enough to supply about 220,000 average Ontario households for the six months in that report. That in itself is interesting but it doesn’t highlight what else was happening with existing generation facilities.   For example, “During the six months ended June 30, 2016, OPG lost 3.4 TWh of hydroelectric generation due to SBG [surplus baseload generation] conditions, compared to 1.5 TWh during the same period in 2015.”

In other words, 3.4 terawatts hours of electrical power was dumped because we had too much.

$150 mil wasted

If it hadn’t been “spilled,” (the technical term) that steady reliable hydroelectric power could have supplied 750,000 average households with power for six months. And even though the power was “spilled,” ratepayers were charged for it at a rate of 4.4 cents per kilowatt hour — at a cost of $150 million for the 3.4 TWh! Ontario’s 4.5 million ratepayers picked up an annual cost of $33 for spilled power, while Minister Thibeault was suggesting those same ratepayers would “save” future rate increases of about $30 annually!

What about even more spilled hydro, increasing amounts of curtailed wind, and steamed off power coming from Bruce Nuclear?

As we ratepayers continue our conservation efforts and demand for power remains flat, or falling, wind and solar generation contracted but not yet constructed will enter service producing more surpluses. The spilled, curtailed and steamed off power will be added to our bills once again driving rates higher.

Minister Thibeault should cancel any unbuilt wind and solar projects, and complete a cost-benefit study before launching the revision of the long-term energy plan (LTEP) as Premier Wynne has instructed him in her recent Mandate Letter.

Ratepayers would be delighted to experience a year or even six months without a rate increase.

(C) Parker Gallant

The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent Wind Concerns Ontario policy.

Comments

Mike Jankowski
Reply

This would absolutely be the right move.

Perhaps done some other way, with recently announced owl inspired blade design (Siemens) which promises to reduce the hovering jet effect (Or is it a refrigerator?!) which they do not officially admit exists, (but actions speak louder than official admissions) and perhaps they could eliminate the compression of air when the Blade passes the tower by going back or borrowing from the design of the first ever wind turbines in Canada which do not utilize a solid tower, but rather a girder structure and therefore less to compress.

And perhaps they could undo the Green Energy Act which has functioned as a legislative steamroller, flattening people’s hopes, dreams, environment and health. Then there is the pyramid scheme. But until these things and more are solved, sorry, but this is the right move.

Sommer
Reply

Also, could all turbines that are causing adverse health impacts for nearby residents who, against their will and without their consent, are being forced to be exposed to noise, low frequency noise modulations and infrasound in their homes, be turned off immediately?
After that, the Minister could work on compensating all who have been forced to leave their homes and compensate them for the losses, both psychologically and physically, that these turbines have caused.

Pat Cusack
Reply

That will be the day, Sommer!

Sommer
Reply

If we do not hold this firmly as our goal, we will be forsaking the residents of Ontario who have are being/have been harmed. How can people sit back and allow this to continue to happen?

Jjoe
Reply

The only contracts that might be ‘safely’ cancelled are those where the wind/solar companies have already breached the terms of the contracts. If unbuilt projects that are meeting all the terms of their contracts were cancelled the companies would sue and probably win huge damages. If a project with a contract has not yet been built it has still generated costs. Design work, acquiring land leases, arranging finance, ordered equipment are all costs that are incurred before anything is built. If I remember correctly the government is facing a lawsuit over not going forward with windfarms in Lake Ontario even though no contracts had actually been signed. The 407 contract turned out to be unbreakable. The same may be true here.

Jjoe
Reply

The Ubreakable 407 contract is a counter example.

Trillium did not actually have a contract cancelled. None had been signed when lake based turbines were stalled. They sued and most of the lawsuit was thrown out. There is still a half billion dollar lawsuit working its way through the courts. And remember, no contract had been cancelled.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/wind-energy-firm-trillium-power-sues-ontario/article556616/

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/trillium-accuses-liberals-of-destroying-wind-farm-lawsuit-documents/article24735413/

Barbara
Reply

Since water quality and safety issues were raised the Ontario government had every right to put a moratorium on off-shore wind projects.

Jjoe

Barbara. The point I made was that a half billion lawsuit is ongoing even though no contract had been signed and so therefore no contract had been broken.

Jjoe
Reply

Are you talking about wind farms that have not started construction or those not finished with construction? How many are we talking about?

Bert
Reply

Companies know that contracts with governments are never unbreakable. The government, or the government of our (grand) children, could even confiscate the wind projects without any compensation. Breaking contracts will be necessary to save Ontario, and take the burden of the deficit away from future generations.

Jjoe
Reply

If any of the companies that had contracts were American or Mexican owned aFree Trade complaint could be made. The government is not immune to those.

Sandra Large
Reply

Putting wind turbines on Amherst Island is utter nonsense a la Liberal gov’t!! They need to reverse this decision! Let the companies sue- the Ontario gov’t could declare bankruptcy. I think they’re pretty much there!!

Barbara
Reply

“Canadian-U.S. Environmental Cooperation: Climate Change Networks and Regional Action”, c. 2005

http://www.worldpapercat.com/1124/Article164883

Follow the links to download.

What takes place behind the scenes is important.

There are ENGOs who may not let the renewable energy issue die in Ontario.

Barbara
Reply

CRA/Canada Revenue Agency, Nov.26, 2015 update

‘Ontario’s FIT/microFIT Programs’

Homeowner general information for solar PV systems.

Increases to property taxes and insurance are deductible.

Has information on capital costs deductions for homeowners. Costs for buying and installing PV systems which are capital costs deductions.

http://www.cra-arc.gc.ca/tx/bsnss/thrtpcs/nt-ft/q1-eng.html

More information available on this topic online.

Robert Daigneault
Reply

Most people leaving comments are not reading the Financial Post article http://business.financialpost.com/fp-comment/lawrence-solomon-yes-ontarios-liberals-can-cancel-their-terrible-renewable-power-contracts-and-they-should-do-it-now carefully. If it is legislated, the contracts can be cancelled with no penalties whatsoever, so stop spewing that the contracts can’t be cancelled and that there will be penalties. The article states that the research was done with very prominent lawyers that know the law. They can be cancelled period !!! No if’s or buts !!!

Jjoe
Reply
Grant Church
Reply

In OPG’s Q2 report it’s noted that the amount of water spilled increased by 50% from the same period in 2015, going from 1.2 TWh to 1.8 TWh. Demand, however, increased as reported by the IESO, going from 31.6 TWh in Q2 2015 to 32 TWh in Q2 2015 . Demand up and more water spilled. Wind power dispalces water power, and we pay for them both.

Bert
Reply

A way to remedy the high costs of wynd energy and put a brake on the growing deficit is to introduce a TAX ON COMMERCIAL use of wind. The same as water is taxed for hydro power.
The wind is not owned by wind companies, it is owned by Ontario citizens.
It is wrong that foreign wynd companies harvest the wind for free, for profit, at Ontario’s citizens expense.

Phillip
Reply

We need to set goals like New York State, which wants 50% of its generation zero-emission by 2030. We have made a good start with wind in Ontario, but we must go much further. It only makes up 13% of generating capacity and we need to take it well over 20%. Solar at only 1% also needs to go much higher. Ontario has made great strides on renewables, but we continue to remain well behind Europe and big parts of the U.S. Much more to do. Good for the environment, good for the economy and good for our moral standing.

Parker Gallant
Reply

Phillip;, Time to move on! 2014 CO 2 emissions in Ontario were 7 megatonnes according to page 8 of the Ontario Electricity Report here: http://www.ontarioenergyreport.ca/pdfs/5924_IESO_Q2OER2016_Electricity.pdf
According to Environment Canada; Ontario’s total CO 2 emissions were 170.2 megatonnes in 2014 meaning squeezing more reduction our of the electricity sector is simply a waste of money. 7 megatonnes is only 4% of total CO 2 emissions in Ontario. That link can be found here:
https://www.ec.gc.ca/indicateurs-indicators/18F3BB9C-43A1-491E-9835-76C8DB9DDFA3/GHGEmissions_EN.pdf

Feel free to advocate for getting wind turbines erected on the Beaches waterfront in Toronto however if you think that will make you feel better, It just won’t do anything to reduce CO 2 emissions! You should take a good look at Germany where emissions are climbing despite their total dedication to IWT.

Bert
Reply

Philip the troll, sorry for your loss, but why do you want to replace hydro power with wynd turbines? Makes no sense to me. In the US and Europe there are still coal plants. Ontario electricity generation is nearly emissions free.
wynd is over in Ontario. The “green” focus will be traffic emissions from now.

Phillip
Reply

Whether you like it or not, and I am not sure why you would not like it, alternative energy is here to stay and will continue to grow. It is the next leap forward in technology and will driven the economy for years to come. A brief slowing of procurement will not make a difference in Ontario, as we are on a path to alternative energy. We should be proud of our achievements so far.

“Ontario electricity generation is nearly emissions free.”

Actually, Ontario is still about 28% natural gas/oil generation, so plenty more work to do.

And given the cost of nuclear, alternative energy will gradually start replacing nuclear in the future.

Wind makes up 16% of generating capacity in Texas, a fossil fuel state, and the big push is on for off-shore wind turbines in New York State.

Texas: 17,713 MW wind capacity
Ontario: 4,361 MW wind capacity

Barbara
Reply

Wind turbines are horse-and-buggy technology.

Texas has its own power grid which does not affect the power grids of other U.S. states.

Bert
Reply

Philip the troll, please do not confuse generating capacity with actual production.
From IESO website at 10.32 today; ACTUALY PRODUCED
wynd energy 0.7%
solar 0.1%
Natural gas 3.9%
Hydro 22%
Nuclear 72%
Whether WE like it or not, 72% nuclear can never be replaced by renewables.
It might make sense to replace fossil fuel with renewables in Texas.
Right now in Ontario we only use 3.9% gas and oil.

Phillip
Reply

Bert, I am very familiar with Ontario generation and production. You can have some days with limited wind production and some days when it can make up a considerable amount. Average wind generation in Ontario is about 16% of the mix.

Nuclear can be gradually phased out like what is happening in Germany and significantly reduced like is happening in Japan.

Again, average generation using oil/gas is 28%.

You cannot look at a single day and say that represents the mix of generation. That is just being dishonest.

Phillip
Reply

Parker, as usual you only tell part of the story. Yes, it is common knowledge that Japan restarted a few of its nuclear plants, but they have significantly pared back their nuclear program and ambitions. They shut down a total of 50 reactors and now have restarted just 4 of them. Yes, it is also common knowledge that Germany has built some more efficient coal plants to both replace existing less efficient coal plants and to make-up for the shutting down of some nuclear capacity. However, the Germans are currently considering new environmental laws to phase out coal entirely either in the 2030s or 2040s.

The reality is that every single country in the world is putting more of emphasis on alternative energy. The goal of all countries is to move to zero-emission energy generation. Some will get there faster than others. Even countries like China and India, who are adding to their emissions, are moving to do a lot more alternative energy and to cutting emissions.The other reality is that as the technology exponentially improves, as it is, alternative energy is rapidly becoming, and already has become in many cases, the most cost effective means to generate electricity. Period. You can whine and complain and try to impede progress with your politics, but the world marches forward and Ontario will march forward. And the world will be a better place for it. If you are alive in 20 years, the world and Ontario will be very different places and your website and all your politics will be irrelevant and will have looked very stupid.

Parker Gallant

Typical of your type–all hype no proof. You must have helped Wynne prepare her mandate letters to her minions! Its all a con and you have been caught up in it. Keep drinking the Kool-Aid! You should spend your time lobbying the Liberals for wind turbines in Toronto rather than us rural folks. They would fit nicely in High Park, Toronto Islands and the beaches in the east end of Toronto. Maybe some on the ridges of the Don Valley too. Go for it!

Barbara
Reply

Vermont shut down its Yankee nuclear power plant and is now in the process of obtaining 1,000 MW of power from Quebec at an estimated cost of USD $1.2 billion.

There are two economic studies on the costs to the Vermont economy which can be provided if you want them.

Michigan DTE plans to shut down its coal fired plants and is now seeking power from Ontario. DTE is also planning on using wind power from the Michigan Thumb area. Michigan faces a power shortfall by the middle of 2017 or the beginning of 2018.

The Nanticoke Lake Erie HVDC lines will take Ontario power to western Pennsylvania where power plants are being shut down. Estimated cost about USD $1 billion for about 1,000 MW.

Barbara
Reply

‘New England Clean Power Link Project’

150 mile HVDC line from Quebec to Vermont.

http://www.necplink.com

Odd how hydro-power is not considered “green” energy in the U.S but OK to obtain hydro-power from Canada.

Jjoe
Reply

Lake Erie HVDC project is a proposal at the moment. I hope it goes ahead. Ice conditions on Lake Erie will be a big factor along with making financial sense will help determine if it is a go. If I remember correctly, CANADIAN GEOGRAPHIC had an article about the lake several years ago. Because the lake is relatively shallow ice can build up in large chunks by being blown by the wind. This ice mass becomes so thick it can drag along the bottom leaving scoring. Not good for underwater cables.

http://www.itclakeerieconnector.com

notinduttondunwich
Reply

Whatever Phillip. …. like Bert says man…. it’s over and thank dog for that!!! Even people in the great red riding of toranta are making a fuss now!!! All Ole Katty Wynnd is doing now is trying to save her skin ….. she / they didn’t want to listen to anyone about there little ponzy scheme and the first time they loose a by-election it’s “OMG we should cut hydro rates and cancel projects!!!!” I’ll tell ya one thing Phillip I will do everything I can to stop this from happening to my great municipality and others as well!!! And then…. im gonna fight some more to take them IWT’S down from people who are directly effected by them even if I have to hook up a rope to one and pull it over with my bicycle. …
Ya laugh it up…. I don’t drive a vehicle very often…. it’s bad for the environment!!!!

Barbara
Reply

The Alliance for Climate Protection, d/b/a The Climate Reality Project, Washington, D.C.

Form 990 Returns, by Year, including 2006-2013

U.S. IRS Form 990: 2013 download

Listed:
Albert Gore, Chair.
James Gustav Speth, Director

https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/870745629

As far as I know, also in Canada.

Phillip
Reply

Parker, yes it is a well know fact that the electricity sector now only makes up 8-9% of Ontario’s total CO2 emissions. That is great and after our elimination of coal and after adding alternative energy. It should therefore be easy to us to go to zero emissions. We can also start reducing our reliance on very expensive nuclear power with alternative energy.

A price on carbon or Cap n Trade and further regulation and incentives will help use reduce overall GHG emissions in the province. We are now making good progress in those areas as well.

Barbara
Reply

Like Vermont has done and now has to have a 150 mile USD $1.2 billion HVDC line to bring hydro-power from Quebec. Their nuclear power was already emissions free.

There is also a HVDC cable in progress to New York City from Quebec.

Phillip
Reply

“Typical of your type–all hype no proof. You must have helped Wynne prepare her mandate letters to her minions! Its all a con and you have been caught up in it. Keep drinking the Kool-Aid! You should spend your time lobbying the Liberals for wind turbines in Toronto rather than us rural folks. They would fit nicely in High Park, Toronto Islands and the beaches in the east end of Toronto. Maybe some on the ridges of the Don Valley too. Go for it!”

That is a very typical comment. Nothing, but ad hominem attacks and sarcasm instead of addressing the issues and facts at-hand. Am I wrong that Japan has closed down 50 reactors and has only restarted 4? Am I wrong that through the summer of 2016 Merkel and the German government have been considering new legislation to eliminate coal entirely? I guess the entire plant has “drank the Kool-Aid”, as alternative energy has exploded just about everywhere.

There are plenty of land-owners and farmers right across Ontario that would be very happy to have either solar or wind put on their property. It provides much needed new sources of income for many. I can take you to many farms where farmers have gotten free buildings for nothing more than putting solar panels on the roof. It is a win-win for many in rural Ontario. In the future we will also see plenty of solar and wind power technology in urban areas. The technology advances are making it viable everywhere.

Parker Gallant
Reply

Phillip, Some facts. We are curtailing wind, spilling hydro and steaming off nuclear. In 2016 we are heading for paying for about 6 TWh of the three; principally due to the unreliable and intermittent production coming from IWT. That 6 TWh is enough to have provided 1 million average households with all the power they would consume in one year. That 6 TWh of power that we didn’t need will cost ratepayers about $600 million or about $125.00 each per annum. Could have bought a lot of coffees.

While we were curtailing spilling and steaming off we were also exporting surplus power to New York, Michigan etc. and they were paying us 1.6 cents a kWh while we picked up the costs of the GA of 9.5 cents a kWh. In the first 6 months of 2016 those costs are in excess of $1 billion. Those exports will hit the average ratepayer with costs of over $220.00 per annum. Just those two together take almost $350.00 our of ratepayers pockets. Ontario now has the highest electricity rates in Canada and the fastest rising rates in North America.

What that means is any company in Ontario looking to expand will not do so and any company looking to open an operation in Canada will not pick Ontario. Its simple economics, so unless you are feeding at the Liberal trough you, as a Ontarian, should realize that we are making life worse for those living here and for future generations as there are no good jobs! Our debt is at the highest level ever and our GDP to Debt ratio is now at a new record. I attribute much of the blame to the mess this government has made of the electricity file and thousands of Ontarians agree with me — not you!

Phillip
Reply

“We are curtailing wind, spilling hydro and steaming off nuclear.”

That happens in every single electricity market in the world. You always have excess generating capacity. That is how the electricity market works. In fact, in the past Ontario had too little capacity because of under-investment when we had price caps, which resulted in brown-outs in the 1990s.

You cannot just say that the excess capacity is a waste of money to ratepayers. Supply and demand is never certain and volatile, so you have to have excess capacity. You cannot cherry-pick or just narrowly look at the excess capacity and say that is a waste. That is just being disingenuous, but is par for the course for you.

The real question is does Ontario have significantly much more supply or is way outside the margin of the supply/demand balance versus other electricity markets around the world. If you really want to make a statement than answer that question. The answer is NO. Ontario does not have excess capacity that is beyond what is consider normal in a large and sophisticated electricity market. There is no excess costing to ratepayers. In fact, Ontario is in a very good place because we have a release value in being able to sell our excess capacity to the U.S. Even if we get just $1 for that excess capacity it is a major marginal benefit that you do not find in all electricity markets. OPG has sold over $2 bn in electricity to the U.S. over the last ten years, which is a huge benefit to Ontario ratepayers.

“What that means is any company in Ontario looking to expand will not do so and any company looking to open an operation in Canada will not pick Ontario.”

There is no evidence that any company has ever left Ontario because of electricity prices. Relative commercial electricity prices in Ontario versus other jurisdiction have not changed all that much for many years and certainly not enough to discourage investment or chase any companies out of the province.

Bert
Reply

@ Philip the troll.
You still don’t know the difference between SUPPLY MIX which is generating resources (capacity) and GENERATED ENERGY which is produced energy (used energy)
please compare both IESO sites.
http://www.ieso.ca/Pages/Power-Data/Supply.aspx (capacity)
http://www.ontarioenergyreport.ca/ (generated energy)

Wind generated only 7% in the first quarter of 2016
Natural gas generated 7% in the first quarter of 2016
Wind generated only 5.1 % in the second quarter of 2016
Natural gas generated 6.7% in the second quarter of 2016

And please visit
http://live.gridwatch.ca/home-page.html
But keep in mind that most solar is “local” and is not included in IESO data.

Phillip
Reply

Wind has not only made some good progress in generating capacity, but grows every year as percentage of supply.

2008: 0.9%
2009: 1.6%
2010: 1.9%
2011: 2.6%
2012: 3.0%
2013: 3%
2014: 4%
2015: 6%

We still have a long way to go. This need to be above 20%.

We should first look to replace Gas/Oil and then slowly phase-out expensive nuclear.

Bert
Reply

@ Philip the troll.
There is not enough windy space in Ontario to have another 6000 wynd turbines. What happens when wynd turbines are proposed in Liberal ridings?
Did you checkhttp://live.gridwatch.ca/home-page.htm?
1.6% wind right now. Wind is just not there when needed.

Phillip
Reply

yeah, Bert, it varies from day to day. there was a day last week when it was double digit. that is how it works. nothing wrong with that. there have been some days in places like Germany when more than 95% of the power was coming from alternative energy. We need more in Ontario, so we too can get to numbers like that. Storage is also improving, so in the future we will be able to better smooth-out the supply mix.

Barbara

How much will power storage cost? And how many hours of storage can be provided?

According to Canadian solar maps, Ontario is not a good place for solar power.

Phillip

there are a wide variety of storage technologies with different cost curves. we are just at the beginning of the storage revolution, so costs are dropping fast. you can read this IEC study which will walk you through the options and technology. The forecast in Section 4 walks you through some of the basic break-evens and conclusions in Section 5 talk about the role of costs.

you want to talk about horse and buggy. this site and your resistance to alternative energy is all horse and buggy. historically, Ontario has had a world leading electricity industry (our Candus were world leaders), but we are falling behind in many areas, as we are not making the investments and are relatively slow to adopt new technologies. too much of a reliance on expensive nuclear and not enough on alternative energies. http://www.iec.ch/whitepaper/pdf/iecWP-energystorage-LR-en.pdf

Bert
Reply

@Philip the troll,
I have noticed that you don’t understand the basics of power generation. Please let me explain.
I have a 5 kW generator. It sits next to my house for the unthinkable event the power is out in Ontario.

kW. k is from kilo and represents a factor 1000. W is from the name James Watt and that is why it is written a capital.
My generator is able to produce 5000Watt. This is the power it can produce.
If it runs on full capacity for an hour it is producing 5000Watt hour.
(5 kWh) This is the energy it has produced.
If it runs on half capacity for an hour it is still a 5 kW generator, but produced 2500 Watt hour (2.5 kWh). Watt is power, Watthour is energy.
Let us assume I have a generator that is running on natural gas and is 2.8kW (power). I have also solar 7.2kW
(Even in the darkest of the night the panels are still 7.2 kW power).
In %; There is 28% natural gas and 72% solar generating capacity, the ENERGY MIX.
If the solar provides enough energy I don’t have to run the natural gas generator. There is still 28% natural gas in the energy mix, but 0% natural gas energy used. Not 28%
I hope this explains.

Reg
Reply

Philip also believes that selling excess power that cost us a billion dollars to produce for 200 million dollars is a profit. He has certainly drank the lieberal kool aide.

Phillip
Reply

Reg, how about you provide some actual numbers from a reliable source to support your claim? You want to talk supply and demand and the economics of the electricity market in Ontario I am all ears. Lets discuss.

ScepticalGord
Reply

Reg, thanks for your input, but don’t waste your time feeding the troll.

All the info that the troll is looking for has been written about many, many times on this site.

If the troll can’t read or understand what’s been written, he can always climb those basement stairs to seek out Daddy’s advise.

Phillip
Reply

I have read the posts on this website many times. They do a very poor job at presenting any real facts and any hard economics that support all the talking points and claims on this site. There is a lot of purposeful distortion and misinformation by Gallant and others. This is just not a very credible site for information.

Parker Gallant
Reply

Phillip: The following is from the Ontario Energy Report prepared by the OEB using IESO data for JUST the 2nd Quarter of the current year.

Q2 (GWh) Manitoba Michigan Minnesota New York Quebec Total

Exports 168 2,555 131 1,806 98 4,757

1st Quarter was worse:
Q1 (GWh) Manitoba Michigan Minnesota New York Quebec Total
Exports 391 2,557 32 2,429 773 6,182

Wouldn’t expect you to believe me though but it does appear we exported 10.9 TWh at an average price of $12.03 Per MWh or 1.2 cents per kWh. The foregoing HOEP ($12.03/MWh) is straight from the IESO data. You should visit their site soon. You might just learn something.

Phillip

you are a banker. you should understand basic financials and economics or maybe you do not. I suspect that you do, but you are just about politics, so it is not about being honest or the numbers.

> electricity markets have to have excess capacity or over supply, given that supply and demand fluctuates

> does Ontario have too much excess capacity over supply? No. it is comparable to what we see in other electricity markets and with other utilities around the world. in fact, the Ontario electricity market is a very modern and efficient electricity market and gets the balance right.

> we cannot sell all the excess electricity that we generate all the time. that is normal. electricity market supply and demand fluctuations, so sales or exports can be volatile.

> a utility will always have to eat the costs associated with excess capacity. it is just part of the costs of doing business, given you have to have excess capacity. you cannot say those costs are an excess burden on ratepayers or a loss to the company. it is just part of the overall cost structure of the company or utility.

> if the company or utility can sell that excess capacity in the market that is a bonus. it is extra revenue that was not necessarily associated with the base business plan.

> Ontario is in a very good position to have a very large market right next door in order to be able to sell its excess capacity. even if we generate just $1 from selling that excess capacity it is a bonus for the utility, rate payers and for the province.

> exports will fluctuate with supply and demand based on the weather, supply factors (in recent quarters exports by OPG were down due to bottlenecks in distribution in New York state). you cannot cherry-pick as you do for everything and just look at a quarter or two of financial results. over the past couple of decades electricity sales to the U.S. have been great for Ontario. we have been a net-exporter.

> you need a new political cause or career.

Barbara

Have you checked out the the excess power supply for U.S. states?

One eastern grid of the U.S.nearly failed during a severe cold snap in January 2014. Came within a few hundred MWs of failing. Something equivalent to one power plant. Millions would have been without power.

notinduttondunwich
Reply

Phillip. … You are like all the leaseholders and other profiteers…. even though people are giving you facts and data you refuse to look at the logical behind it…. CIPK is up…. habitat destruction up…. adverse health effects up….. bat and all bird mortality rates through the roof…. contaminated well water just starting to rear it’s ugly head….. hydro poverty up….. ratepayers hydro being sold off for pennies on the dollar wayyy up!!! Ontarios unemployment rate up…..ontario businesses exiting ontario wayyy up!!! liberals not being honest and transparent waaaayyyyy up!!!!!! Again….. only people on the liberal GEA tit are content with what’s happening cause its all about you guys getting your $$$$. That’s all gonna stop when the liberals decide to give ALL leaseholders
1 cent per kwh…..
Then we’ll see who’s complaining Phillip. ….

Phillip
Reply

You certainly got all the standard talking points there…. Wind Concerns Ontario has trained you well. Very little of that holds up to any of the most minimal scrutiny. Just to take one of you points: can you name me 5 companies that have left Ontario in the last 10 years because of electricity prices? how about 3? one more: Cornell University, which runs just about the best ornithology research department in the world says that at least 50% of the bird species in North America are under threat to going extinct from climate change? how does that compare to the number being killed by wind power? I could go on…

Phillip
Reply

You guys always quote that Editorial in Forbes. Again, all the standard talking points that do not hold up to even the minimal scrutiny. Such great research. A series of links to more editorials. The Toronto Sun is such a good source for electricity market analysis and research. How much is the Toronto Sun paying you guys for your Editorials these days? I hope not much as the company is in bankruptcy. The conservative media feedback loop in full effect. Should I expect any different give you are part of it.

(1) “Ontario has gone from having some of the most affordable electricity in North America to having some of the most expensive. ”

I think you guys are now saying MOST expensive in North America instead of “some” of the most expensive. Your methodology of cherry-picking only Ontario’s non-urban customers that have distribution costs and then comparing to prices outside Ontario that includes urban customers in your analysis is completely dishonest. Apples and oranges. According to Hydro Quebec, Ontario’s electricity prices are about average in North America and really where they should be when compared to U.S. States that have the majority of there generation from nuclear. Ontario has and will always have higher electricity prices than Quebec, Manitoba, B.C. and Nova Scotia because of its very expensive nuclear program versus cheap hydroelectricity in those other provinces. You want to criticize electricity prices in Ontario. Fine, then what you should really be doing is complaining about the decisions to go nuclear in the 1970s and 1980s.

(2) so much misrepresentation in what the AG said. Global Adjustments are payments that are completely justifiable. It is how the system works and are in no way a wasted money or some kind of excess or over payments. They represent the variable portion of electricity generation contracts and are a way to incentivize investment in the sector.

(3) McKitrick and Green’s classic junk science “published” by the Fraser Institute? Those guys get a lot of press at SunMedia. I guess if no credible institution or publication will publish their “work” then that is where they have to go to promote your politics.

(4) Yeah, they phases out coal because coal it is dirty. Not environmentally friendly. No surprise.

(5) rural bills in Ontario including distribution charges are on par with what we seen from utilities right across North America. they all charge separately for distribution.

(6) “more expensive wind has provided less than 4% of Ontario’s power but accounts for 20% of the cost of electricity.” That is a completely false statement. The annual interest costs alone associated with just the debt from nuclear power swamps any costs associated with wind power.

(7) The old gas plant scandal BS. The costs were far below $1.3 bn. They still have to build the plant no matter where it is located, so you cannot include the cost of building the Napanee plant. In fact, building it in Napanee resulted in a significant reduction in the price of building the plant. You cannot really even include the cost of additional transmission to get to that location, as it had to be built somewhere. At worst you have the cost of the cancelled contracts. Those are tiny compared to the overall size of the electricity market in Ontario. Has no impact on the price of electricity in Ontario.

(8) Can you Gallant, the Chamber of Commerce or AMPCO name three companies that have left Ontario or even did not invest in Ontario because of electricity prices? Talk is cheap.

(9) it is funny and hilarious that your linked Forbes Editorial links to the Mowat study on job losses in Ontario. No where in it does it mention electricity prices as the reason for even a single job loss in the province. Kind of destroys the entire Editorial. Kind of makes sense when you are trying to juggle all this misinformation, distortions and falsehoods in one Editorial. You cannot keep track of all the BS.

Parker Gallant

“You cannot keep track of all the BS.”

No need to! Its all in your post!

Phillip

so why don’t you point out exactly where I am wrong and why? I have done that with your posts.

Barbara

Power costs are factor in doing business in Ontario. For companies that use a lot of power this is a big factor. For companies that use a lot of power this can make the difference between being competitive in the market place or not.

Phillip

there is very little power or electricity intense manufacturing in Ontario. there almost never has been. electricity prices for most companies operating in Ontario represents a very small part of their overall cost structure. again, if you or Parker want to quote a press release from say three companies that have left the province or did not invest in the province because of electricity prices then go right ahead. how about just one company?

there is no evidence that electricity prices have had any impact on investment in the province or resulted in any companies shutting down or a job lost. in fact, foreign direct investment into Ontario has been about the highest of any jurisdiction in North America. GM just added another 1,000 jobs in Ontario.

“Leading [Ontario] for the second year in a row for foreign capital investment, receiving US $7.1 billion.”

https://news.ontario.ca/medg/en/2015/05/ontario-continues-to-be-a-top-destination-for-foreign-direct-investment-in-north-america.html

AT Kearney does a lot of working on foreign direct investments. Their top factors affecting FDI decisions:

Cost of labour, 15%
Regulatory transparency and lack of corruption, 15%
General security environment, 14%
Technological and innovation capabilities, 13%
Tax rates and ease of tax payment, 12%
Talent and skill level of labour pool, 12%
Government incentives for investors, 11%

Electricity costs are not a major factor.

Barbara

Ontario has already lost thousands if manufacturing jobs and power demand dropped.

An IWT/wind mill is a pinwheel with a generator attached to it.

If Germany is such a great place to manufacture, why did VW build a large plant in Mexico?

Toyota & Ford are also in Mexico along with other manufacturing companies.

Ask the people in Essex County where their jobs went to. Some of the Essex County greenhouse companies are thinking about relocating due to high Hydro bills and a few already have set up operations outside of Canada.

Phillip

notinduttondunwich,

lets look at your articles one by one:

> http://www.thewhig.com/2013/12/04/hydro-rates-dragging-down-businesses

there is a lot of conjecture there by the journalist. the journalist adds his own opinion (all the classic SunMedia talking points) instead of focusing exclusively on what the owner of the business says. the business owner’s complaints are just your standard complaints for having to pay higher utility bills. the reality is the owner of the business has laid off nobody, has not moved his business or has not closed down anything. he also complains about his taxes. same old, same old. this article is from 2013. in the last year Kingston has had some of the best economic and job growth that it has had in years. “Frulact, a Portuguese food manufacturer opens a new preparation and processing plant in Kingston this fall. About 1,200 jobs are expected to be created this year, in line with 2015’s 1,300 new positions.” Frulact does not seem to be too worried about electricity prices.

> http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/windsor/high-ontario-power-rates-blamed-for-deterring-investment-1.1350987

another article from 2013. your classic industry group complaining about costs. it is what they do. no real numbers in the article to prove anything. there is a comment that electricity prices are higher, especially with the higher dollar. I suspect if you factor out the exchange rate industrial electrical costs are the same in Ontario as in near-by States.

from the article: “Wholesale electricity prices remain broadly in-line with major neighbouring jurisdictions such as New York, Michigan and Pennsylvania,” spokesperson Kirby Dier wrote in an email to CBC.

Dier claims Michigan’s “all-inclusive rate” is $76 per megawatt hour, not $45 as the Association of Major Power Consumers of Ontario claims.”

Again an article that points to no companies leaving Ontario because of electricity rates or no companies cutting investment because of electricity prices. in fact, Nova Chemicals featured in the article announced a $400 million expansion and new plant in Sarina earlier this year. So much for concerns about electricity prices.

> http://windsorstar.com/business/local-business/greenhouse-grower-calls-for-quick-action-on-soaring-hydro-costs

Another article that shows nobody closing any plants or reducing investment in Ontario because of electricity prices. In the case of Sunset Farms it sounds like lack of electricity supply was the main issue.

“The movement to the U.S. prompted calls for a new hydro line and transformer station in Leamington — a project which is expected to be operational in spring, 2018, according to the Ontario Energy Board.”

the reality is that Lemington-Kingsville where the company featured in the article has had explosive economic growth in recent years and most of that has been led by greenhouse growers. electricity prices has had no impact on that growth.

see:
http://windsorstar.com/news/local-news/mega-hospital-site-confirmation-of-countys-growth

> https://www.google.ca/amp/windsorstar.com/business/local-business/soaring-hydro-costs-could-force-businesses-to-flee-ontario-chamber-warns/amp?client=ms-android-Samsung

it is the job of the Chamber to complain about costs. that is what they do everywhere and always. they warn about an “exodus of businesses unless the province addresses soaring electricity costs”, but yet they provide zero examples of it actually happening.

If you read the article it sounds like business are just looking for some free government hand-outs.

“Taylor said growers are being wooed by competing jurisdictions in the U.S., dangling generous incentives.  “Growers  also seeing very attractive incentive programs and packages from competing jurisdiction,” she said. “In Ontario,   we just can’t match them, and electricity pricing is part of that package.”

They are looking for corporate welfare. Threatening to leave unless they get generous tax incentives.

And what has been happening in Windsor? It is growing faster than the national average. Companies are investing in new manufacturing. So where are all the companies leaving because of electricity prices? Where is the “exodus” of businesses the Chamber warned about? see: http://windsorstar.com/business/local-business/windsor-economy-to-grow-faster-than-national-average-says-study

notinduttondunwich
Reply

http://www.thewhig.com/2013/12/04/hydro-rates-dragging-down-businesses

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/windsor/high-ontario-power-rates-blamed-for-deterring-investment-1.1350987

http://windsorstar.com/business/local-business/greenhouse-grower-calls-for-quick-action-on-soaring-hydro-costs

https://www.google.ca/amp/windsorstar.com/business/local-business/soaring-hydro-costs-could-force-businesses-to-flee-ontario-chamber-warns/amp?client=ms-android-samsung

Phillip you and Turbinebuddy are brutal!!!! Doesn’t matter what the majority of the folks out there say, you’re right and we’re all wrong!!! Ignorant and arrogant!!! As for birds and bats let’s kill them all off!!! Right!!! If you dump 1 L. Of used oil onto a river then I guess dumping 2 L Of used oil in that same river is gonna clean it up!!! Bats got white nose syndrome…. oh well they’re all gonna die anyways right??? Let’s hasten their demise!!!! Humans…. who cares about them either, right Phillip. … everyone who complains about GEA hardship are liars, right Phillip. … just jealous cause you and turbine buddy had the smarts to get in on the ground level of the GEA ponzi scheme….. just ridiculous. Phillip you should be ashamed of yourself!!!!!

Phillip
Reply

lets look at your articles one by one:

> http://www.thewhig.com/2013/12/04/hydro-rates-dragging-down-businesses

there is a lot of conjecture there by the journalist. the journalist adds his own opinion (all the classic SunMedia talking points) instead of focusing exclusively on what the owner of the business says. the business owner’s complaints are just your standard complaints for having to pay higher utility bills. the reality is the owner of the business has laid off nobody, has not moved his business or has not closed down anything. he also complains about his taxes. same old, same old. this article is from 2013. in the last year Kingston has had some of the best economic and job growth that it has had in years. “Frulact, a Portuguese food manufacturer opens a new preparation and processing plant in Kingston this fall. About 1,200 jobs are expected to be created this year, in line with 2015’s 1,300 new positions.” Frulact does not seem to be too worried about electricity prices.

> http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/windsor/high-ontario-power-rates-blamed-for-deterring-investment-1.1350987

another article from 2013. your classic industry group complaining about costs. it is what they do. no real numbers in the article to prove anything. there is a comment that electricity prices are higher, especially with the higher dollar. I suspect if you factor out the exchange rate industrial electrical costs are the same in Ontario as in near-by States.

from the article: “Wholesale electricity prices remain broadly in-line with major neighbouring jurisdictions such as New York, Michigan and Pennsylvania,” spokesperson Kirby Dier wrote in an email to CBC.

Dier claims Michigan’s “all-inclusive rate” is $76 per megawatt hour, not $45 as the Association of Major Power Consumers of Ontario claims.”

Again an article that points to no companies leaving Ontario because of electricity rates or no companies cutting investment because of electricity prices. in fact, Nova Chemicals featured in the article announced a $400 million expansion and new plant in Sarina earlier this year. So much for concerns about electricity prices.

Parker Gallant
Reply

Xstrada refinery in Timmins from the Star: https://www.thestar.com/business/2010/04/16/xstrata_holds_firm_on_decision_to_cut_timmins_jobs.html
“Another big problem is the increased environmental expenditures coming into force in Ontario over the next few years to meet air quality regulations, he added. Increased electricity and gas costs are also issues.”

From the Hamilton Spec:
http://www.thespec.com/news-story/2089898-high-costs-forced-stoney-creek-dairy-out/
“Gaucher said several factors combined to make the Stoney Creek ice-cream plant uncompetitive — taxes and electricity bills were almost twice what he pays in Montreal and the cost of city water was $8,000 a year in Montreal compared with $100,000 a year here. In addition, the local plant’s lack of warehousing space added $250,000 a year in costs.”

Windsor Star:
Ontario electricity costs ‘breaking’ province’s manufacturing sector
http://windsorstar.com/news/ontario-electricity-costs-breaking-provinces-manufacturing-sector
““The skills mismatch and the cost of electricity are the top two issues I hear from employers,” Goodyear said.

“The province of Ontario needs to get some of the input costs down to be more competitive.

“It doesn’t make sense that people in New York are paying way less for electricity than people in Ontario, especially when some of that electricity is made here in Ontario.
“The province has a huge issue there getting those costs down. That’s an input cost breaking some of our manufacturers.”

Phillip
Reply

“Xstrada refinery in Timmins from the Star: ”

so all you got is a mining company’s processing operation from 6 years ago. how can electricity prices have had anything to do with it taking it processing to Quebec when they were offered “energy breaks” by the province of Ontario? that tells you that electricity prices had exactly nothing to do with leaving Ontario.

From the article you quote:

“There are a number of reasons why Xstrata is leaving Ontario, Gariepy said in an interview from Montreal. Those factors are “fierce Asian competition”, the strength of the Canadian dollar and a reduced outlet for Xstrata by-products.”

Sounds more like they were just rationalizing processing in Canada after their merger.

If they eliminated their processing in Ontario because of electricity prices, then we would expect to see all kinds of other mining processors leave the province for somewhere else because of electricity prices. We have not. According to the OMA over the last bunch of years a steady 60% of the metals mined in Ontario are processed here, in addition to processing minerals from four Canadian provinces, the United States and Australia.

All you also got is an ice cream factory from six years ago. Again, this was another merger, so sounds a lot like just rationalizing operations after a merger. From the article you quote: ” “mainly aims to acquire the trademarks, goodwill and production equipment (of) Stoney Creek Diary … “. They had no intention of keeping the operations. Was more of an accounting and tangible and intangible asset acquisition. Had nothing to do with electricity prices.

You should read the final article you link to and quote above closely:

“Hydro One chair of the board of directors Sandra Pupatello warned the province faces a difficult decade of challenges in the energy sector combating falling American electricity prices.

“It isn’t so much our (costs are) changing, it’s that their’s (U.S.) are getting so much less expensive with the onset of natural gas,” said Pupatello, who spoke at the conference in her role as CEO of the Windsor Essex Economic Development Corp.”

It kind of blows up your entire website. As per your link, it is not about Ontario’s electricity prices rising or about Ontario Hydro’s cost base increasing. It is about the drop in natural gas prices in the U.S. and Ontario’s very big fixed cost base in nuclear power. Has absolutely nothing to do with wind power or alternative energy.

Parker Gallant
Reply

Neither the Wynne led government or the company exiting the province issue a press release announcing their intentions but you wouldn’t understand that! Keep lapping up that Kool-Aid!

Phillip
Reply

again, why don’t you provide some real examples of companies leaving the province because of electricity prices? investment in Ontario has been up and has totalled more than just about every jurisdiction in North America in recent years. nobody is scared to come to the province because of electricity prices. the Kool-Aid ad hominem is very old and quite varsity. it is what people say when they have nothing else to say.

Barbara

Investments from wind and solar companies in Ontario? Or companies related to the renewable energy industry?

Barbara

Phillip,

Anyone with a basic knowledge of physics, which I have, knows IWTs are not “new” technology.

Also have half dozen engineers in my family and one was offered a job in the wind industry and would NOT take the job.

Barbara
Reply

If only one Michigan nuclear power plant goes off-line, this could be a serious issue if power can’t be imported into the state from elsewhere.

notinduttondunwich
Reply

https://news.ontario.ca/medg/en/2015/05/ontario-continues-to-be-a-top-destination-for-foreign-direct-investment-in-north-america.html

Phillip…..
Is this your proof??? It’s a government website news realease!!!! Of course it says everything is just awesome!!! That’s their job!!!
They report on things all the time like……
IWT’S have no adverse health effects to humans. … or
IWT’S do not kill birds or bats… or
IWT’S do not contaminate ground water…. or
There’s no hydro crisis in Ontario…. or
That IWT’S are safe around airports…. or
That the liberals dont control the IESO or the OEB…..
The government website is the last place I would look for any truthfully reporting on anything!!
Phillip….. you’re a funny guy!!!! Keep up the trolling… you and turbine buddy should get together and have tea!!!!!

David Libby
Reply

“The Court of Appeal, in confirming the motions judge`s decision, made it clear that proponents who choose to participate in discretionary government programs, such as Ontario’s renewable energy program, do so primarily at their own risk. Governments may alter the policies that underlie a program, and may even alter or cancel such programs, in a manner that may be fully lawful and immune from civil suit even if individual participants suffer damage from such alteration or cancellation. Much will depend upon the particular facts of a case.”

http://www.mondaq.com/canada/x/282310/Renewables/Appeal+Court+Allows+2Billion+Wind+Farm+Action+to+Proceed+Against+Government+of+Ontario

Leave a Reply to ScepticalGordCancel reply

name*

email* (not published)

website