Wind forecast: you’ll be paying more for electricity in Ontario

Parker Gallant compares power output from wind and the cost to consumers between 2010 and 2016: we’re paying more for intermittent wind power, produced out-of-phase with demand

More wind=more cost [Photo: Dorothea Larsen]
In 2010, industrial wind turbines (IWT) in Ontario represented total installed capacity of approximately 1,200 megawatts (MW); they generated 2.95 terawatt hours (TWh*) of transmission (TX) and distributed (DX) connected electricity.  The power from wind cost Ontario’s ratepayers about $413 million for those 2.95 TWh, about 2.1% of total 2010 consumption.  The cost of IWT generation in 2010 was 3.1% of total generation costs (Global Adjustment [GA] + Hourly Ontario Energy Price [HOEP]) and represented 33.5% of “net exports”** of electricity to our neighbours in Michigan, New York, and others.
Jump to 2016: wind turbines represented installed capacity of almost 4,500 MW, and generated and curtailed*** TX and DX connected electricity totaling 13.15 TWh.  The cost to Ontario’s ratepayers jumped to $1,894.3 million — about 12.2 % of total generation costs.  The 13.15 TWh of generation was 7.9% of Ontario’s total consumption but 94.9% of net exports.
The cost per kilowatt hour of electricity generated by wind in 2010 was 14 cents and in 2016 it had increased to 17.5 cents, despite downward adjustments to the contracted values between 2010 and 2016.   That cost doesn’t include the back-up costs of gas generation when the wind doesn’t blow and we need the power, nor does it include costs associated with spilled hydro or steamed off nuclear, but it does include the cost of curtailed wind, which was 2.33 TWh in 2016 and just shy of total wind generated electricity in 2010.
In the seven years from 2010 to 2016, Ontario’s electricity ratepayers picked up total costs of $7.746 billion for 56.9 TWh of grid-accepted and curtailed (4.9 TWh) wind-generated electricity.   The actual value given to those 56.9 TWh by the HOEP market was just shy of $570 million meaning ratepayers were forced to pick up the difference of $7.166 billion for power that wasn’t needed.  The foregoing is based on the fact we have continually exported our surplus generation since the passing of the Green Energy Act and contracted for IWT generation at above market prices.
During those same seven years, Ontario had “net exports” of 85.95 TWh while curtailing wind, spilling hydro and steaming off nuclear. And, at the same time, we were contracting for gas plant generators that are now only occasionally called on to generate electricity yet are paid considerable dollars for simply idling!
Refinancing wind payments
As noted above the cost of wind generation in 2016 was almost $1.9 billion and represented 15.3% of the Global Adjustment pot. That cost was close to what was inferred in an Energy Ministry press release headlined: “Refinancing the Global Adjustment” but suggesting it was taxpayer owned “infrastructure”:  “To relieve the current burden on ratepayers and share costs more fairly, a portion of the GA is being refinanced. Refinancing the GA would provide significant and immediate rate relief by spreading the cost of electricity investments over the expected lifecycle of the infrastructure that has been built.”
What’s really being refinanced is a portion of the guaranteed payments to the wind and solar developers who were contracted at above market rates! So, what is being touted as a 25% reduction includes the 8% provincial portion of the HST and a portion of annual payments being made to wind and solar developers for their intermittent (and unreliable) power.
Premier Wynne’s shell game continues!
Parker Gallant,
May 22, 2017
Note: Special thanks to Scott Luft for his recent chart outlining the data enabling the writer to complete the math associated with this Liberal shell game!
*    One  TWh equals 1 million MWh and the average household in Ontario reputedly consumes 9 MWh annually, meaning 1 TWh could power 111,000 average household for one year.
**   Net exports are total exports less total imports.
*** Ontario commenced paying for “curtailed” wind generation in September 2013.
 Re-posed from Parker Gallant’s Energy Perspectives

What's your reaction?


  • Notinduttondunwich
    Posted May 22, 2017 8:16 pm 0Likes

    The new high speed rail is a government green project therefore it will be subsidized by the generous ratepayers and taxpayers of Ontario…. probably milk that from the global adjustments line…. maybe delivery charge …. ya thats it!!!! cause yer delivering people to where they wanna go!!!
    By the time it comes online by 2025 our hydro will have tripled ……

  • Richard Mann
    Posted May 22, 2017 9:00 pm 0Likes

    For an update on the Health Impacts of Wind Turbines, here is a talk by Carmen Krogh, speaking at University of Waterloo.
    DATE: Wednesday, March 29, 2017
    TIME: 10:00 AM to 11:30 AM
    LOCATION: DC 1302, University of Waterloo.
    TITLE: Industrial wind turbines can harm humans
    PRESENTER: Carmen M Krogh
    The topic of the risk of harm to human health associated with wind energy facilities is controversial and debated worldwide. On May 7, 2014, Carmen Krogh presented a seminar at the University of Waterloo which considered some of the research dating back to the early 1980’s. A snapshot of some of the current research available in 2014 was provided. The research is challenged in part by the complexities and numerous variables and knowledge gaps associated with this subject. This presentation will explore some of these research challenges and provide an update on the growing body of evidence regarding human health risk factors. Included will be the emerging research indicating risks to those working in this field.
    Carmen M Krogh is a full time volunteer and published researcher regarding health effects and industrial wind energy facilities and shares information with communities; individuals; federal, provincial and public health authorities, wind energy developers; the industry; and others. She is an author and a co-author of peer reviewed articles and conference papers presented at wind turbine scientific noise conferences. Ms Krogh is a retired pharmacist whose career includes: senior executive positions at a teaching hospital (Director of Pharmacy); a drug information researcher at another teaching hospital; a Director of a professional organization; and a Director (A) at Health Canada (PMRA). She is the former Director of Publications and Editor in Chief of the Compendium of Pharmaceuticals and Specialties (CPS), the book used by physicians, nurses, and health professionals for prescribing information in Canada.

  • Sommer
    Posted May 23, 2017 4:56 pm 0Likes

    Take a look at this information:
    You are certainly on the right track, Parker. Thanks also to Scott Left for his brilliant analysis.

  • Notinduttondunwich
    Posted May 23, 2017 11:45 pm 0Likes right now….
    1355…. import…..
    +1513….. export…..
    2868 net…… loss…. here’s why!!!
    Correct math…..
    Since we’re importing at a greater rate than we charge our ratepayers.. and exporting at a deep cut rate than we charge ratepayers. We are actually running a loss…
    Not what is shown on
    1355…. import….
    -1513…. export….
    158 net green or positive!!!!!!!
    They want you to think green and are doing something to change climate change..
    Which the climate has been changing fer…. ever!!!!
    People gotta stand up stop this crap!!!! Giving away so much FREE HYDRO is sickening…..

  • Notinduttondunwich
    Posted May 24, 2017 9:50 am 0Likes
  • Doug Corner
    Posted May 24, 2017 4:02 pm 0Likes

    This is a province wide issue, but the news from the Financial Accountability Office is buried in the Toronto section and no commenting allowed.

    • Sommer
      Posted May 25, 2017 2:26 pm 0Likes

      Astute comment, Doug. Why are people in Ontario letting this happen? There are major ramifications for this mismanagement and yet most people are unaware of what’s happening.
      Thanks to Parker Gallant for bringing it to our attention.

      • Barbara
        Posted May 25, 2017 7:41 pm 0Likes

        Has anyone looked at the “anti-dumping” provision under NAFTA Chapter 6?
        New York and/or Michigan are not going to complain under NAFTA Chapter 6. Cheap or free electricity why should they complain?
        A complaint probably will have to come from Ontario residents.
        Ontario to Quebec isn’t covered by NAFTA Chapter 6 as the excess electricity does not cross the U.S Border?

        • Barbara
          Posted May 25, 2017 9:41 pm 0Likes

          NAFTA Secretariat
          North American Free Trade Agreement
          Part Two: Energy and Basic Petrochemicals
          Chapter 6
          Article 602: Scope and Coverage
          Article 605: Miscellaneous Provisions
          Dumping is the sale of goods in foreign markets at prices below those charged for comparable sales in the home market or that are below the cost of producing the goods.”

          Look for other means of doing things in this present situation.

        • Sommer
          Posted May 26, 2017 9:02 am 0Likes

          How do we rally the people of Ontario and bring this ‘anti dumping’ provision to their attention?
          Even if lots of people complain, how do we get through to ‘leaders’ who don’t listen, but insist on remaining intransigent and impervious with the facts?
          Good leaders pays attention to the steadily revealing reality and make the necessary changes.

          • Barbara
            Posted May 26, 2017 4:48 pm 0Likes

            Small businesses are being affected by “dumping”.
            Trade agreements such as NAFTA are supposed to protect businesses in countries that have trade agreements such as NAFTA.
            Otherwise, circulate this information.

  • Notinduttondunwich
    Posted May 24, 2017 6:03 pm 0Likes

    Comment away my friend!!!

  • Notinduttondunwich
    Posted May 26, 2017 3:49 pm 0Likes

    I learned today that MOECC AND the MOE have solved the problems of catastrophic bird… bat… and raptor…. slaughter rates around the Industrial Wind Turdbine projects….
    Very ingenious if I do say so myself…. glad we could do something….
    All IWT projects in Ontario must now POST signs around all their IWTs projects … the signs will read as follows…..
    MOECC and MOE

  • Barbara
    Posted May 26, 2017 5:07 pm 0Likes

    For general information.
    ETC/Energy Transitions Commission, a recently founded organization
    Commissioners include:
    Al Gore
    And others.
    Mouse-over each photo for commission members other affiliations such as:
    Rocky Mountain Institute
    And other organizations.
    Funders include:
    European Climate Foundation
    Generation Foundation
    Rocky Mountain Institute
    UN Foundation
    Schneider Electric
    And others

    • Barbara
      Posted May 26, 2017 5:15 pm 0Likes

      Correction the ETC should be:

    • Barbara
      Posted May 28, 2017 11:41 am 0Likes

      UNEP Inquiry
      “Mobilizing the world’s capital is essential for the transition to a sustainable, low-carbon economy.”
      Inquiry: Design of a Sustainable Financial System.
      Scroll down to the Advisory Council members which include:
      Kathy Bardswick, Canada
      Rachel Kyte, SE4All
      Adair Turner, also INET

    • Barbara
      Posted May 29, 2017 3:26 pm 0Likes

      The Financial System We Need
      ‘From Momentum To Transformation’. 2nd Edition, October 2016, 96 pages.
      Re: Networks
      Some information near the beginning of this publication and scroll down to near the end:
      Appendix II:
      Partners included:
      Generation Investment Management
      Rockefeller Foundation
      World Resources Institute
      European Climate Foundation
      And others

      • Barbara
        Posted May 29, 2017 5:44 pm 0Likes

        Inquiry: Design of a Sustainable Financial System
        ‘Aligning The Financial System With Sustainable Development’, January 2015, 34 pages.
        Pathways to Scale
        The Pathway’s Knowledge Networks include:
        CIGI, Waterloo, ON
        And others
        The Inquiry’s Country Engagement includes photos:
        Kathy Bardswick, Canada
        Adair Turner, also with INET
        And others

      • Barbara
        Posted May 30, 2017 2:24 pm 0Likes

        UNEP Inquiry
        The Financial System We Need
        ‘Aligning The Financial System With Sustainable Development’, Oct.2015, 112 pages.
        P.25, U.S. Fiscal Action and also applies to Canada include:
        Tax benefits
        Green bonds
        Insurance regulation
        Scroll way down to: Appendix III
        Worldwide Collaborating Institutions list.
        Yieldcos involve wind and solar projects and the financial benefits project owners can derive from Yieldcos.
        The effects of insurance regulation have not been covered.
        More at:
        More knowledge gaps covered.

        • Barbara
          Posted May 30, 2017 11:18 pm 0Likes

          UNEP Inquiry
          Insurance 2030
          ‘Harnessing Insurance for Sustainable Development’, June 2015, 39 pages
          P.11, Sustainable Energy
          “Investments and insurance for clean energy projects, including innovative products for financing.”
          Much more information at:

        • Barbara
          Posted May 31, 2017 1:06 pm 0Likes

          UNEP Inquiry
          Scaling Up Green Bond Markets For Sustainable Development
          ‘A strategic guide for the public sector market development for green bonds’ , December 2015, 52 pages.
          Covers green bonds and Yieldcos.
          P.40, Appendix 3a: Yieldcos
          Explains the role of Yieldcos in renewable energy projects such as wind and solar projects.
          Read at:

        • Barbara
          Posted May 31, 2017 4:56 pm 0Likes

          UNSDSN/UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network
          Launched 2012 by UN Secretary-general, Ban Ki-moon
          ‘The Roles of Public and Private Development Finance’, May 21, 2015 10 pages
          SDG Agenda
          SDGs are sustainable development goals
          ‘The Special Role of Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs)’
          Pages, 5-6
          Market price connections include:
          Variety of tax and subsidy connections
          Tax credits for investments in new (risky) technologies
          Feed-in tariffs for renewable energy
          Carbon pricing

          • Barbara
            Posted May 31, 2017 9:40 pm 0Likes

            UNSDSN/UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network
            Leadership Council includes:
            Jose Maria Figueres, Carbon War Room
            James Hansen
            Paul Polman, Unilever
            Jeffrey Sachs, Director of UNSDSN
            Andrew Steer, WRI/World Resources Institute
            And others
            Note the word “Network”.

        • Barbara
          Posted June 1, 2017 11:04 pm 0Likes

          UNEP FI
          ‘Green Financial Products and Services’
          Current trends and future opportunities in North America, Aug. 2007, 82 pages.
          P.27: Wind Portfolio Financing, (2005) & Invenergy
          P.32: Weather Derivatives enable wind power producers to hedge against unfavourable wind conditions.
          P.44: Corporate and investment banking, securing & contributing to finance arrangements.
          Report was released about 10 years ago.

      • Barbara
        Posted June 2, 2017 1:06 am 0Likes

        ‘Feed-in Tariffs As a Policy Instrument for Promoting Renewable Energy and Green Economies in Developing Countries’
        Includes a history of Feed-in-Tariffs
        Policy Objectives In Law
        Pages 22/24
        Germany’s 2004 FIT law states:
        Purpose of this Act is to facilitate a sustainable development energy supply.
        To promote the development of technologies for the generation of electricity from renewable energy sources.
        Much more at:

  • Barbara
    Posted June 2, 2017 10:44 pm 0Likes

    Energy Access & Efficiency
    en.Lighten Initiative
    ‘Phasing Out Incandescent Lamps By the End of 2016’
    The en.Lighten Initiative was organized by UNEP and the Global Environment Facility (GEF). Also has private company partners.

    • Barbara
      Posted June 3, 2017 12:36 am 0Likes
      Partnership Story:
      ‘UNEP En.lightnen Initiative’
      The en.lightnen initiative was created in 2009 as a partnership between UNEP, OSRAM GmbH, and Philips Lighting with the support of the GEF Earth Fund.
      More at:

    • Barbara
      Posted June 3, 2017 5:22 pm 0Likes

      UN Environment
      Global Environment Facility (GEF)
      Funding for the Environment
      “The Global Environment Facility (GEF), established on the eve of the 1992 Rio Earth Summit, is a catalyst for action on the environment — and much more. Through its strategic investment, the GEF works with partners to tackle the planet’s biggest environmental issues.”
      The GEF is a Unique Partnership of 18 agencies working within 183 countries.
      More at:

      • Barbara
        Posted June 3, 2017 8:27 pm 0Likes

        GEF-CSO Network
        “Formerly known as GEF-NGO Network”
        Scroll down to North American members which include:
        IISD, Canada
        NRDC, also active in Canada
        World Resources Institute
        Woods Hole Research Center, also active in Canada
        Institute For Sustainable Power, Inc., also active in Canada
        Atlantic States Legal Foundation, also active in Canada
        And others
        Click on the organization name for more information.

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